What If the 1921 Apportionment Were Done
Posted: Tue Jan 28, 2014 3:45 am
The decennial apportionment of House seats was not done after the 1920 census, despite its being a constitutional requirement. Out of curiosity I calculated how it would have turned out if 435 seats were apportioned based on the 1920 census. In other words, what parts of the 1933 changes would have taken effect ten years earlier if the rules passed in 1929 were in effect before the 1920 census. 40% of the 48 states (19 of them) would have had a change in their apportionment. Listed below are the names of the 19 states and the actual number of House seats apportioned to each after the 1910 and 1930 censuses with the differences. The last two columns show the changes that would have happened in 1921 and 1931 if the current rule had been applied in 1921 (they are labeled 'S.H.B.' for 'should have been').
I went on to figure out how the listed 1920 changes would have affected the outcomes of the 1924 and 1928 presidential elections. The differences are insignificant. In each election, two additional votes would have gone to each of the Republican candidates which instead went to the Democrats.
1924 - Actual Results:
Code: Select all
1911 1931 1921 1931
actual actual S.H.B. S.H.B.
------ ------- ------ ------
California 11 20 (+9) +3 +6
Connecticut 5 6 (+1) +1 -
Indiana 13 12 (-1) -1 -
Iowa 11 9 (-2) -1 -1
Kansas 8 7 (-1) -1 -
Kentucky 11 9 (-2) -1 -1
Louisiana 8 8 (-) -1 +1
Maine 4 3 (-1) -1 -
Michigan 13 17 (+4) +2 +2
Mississippi 8 7 (-1) -1 -
Missouri 16 13 (-3) -2 -1
Nebraska 6 5 (-1) -1 -
New Jersey 12 14 (+2) +1 +1
New Mexico 1 1 (-) +1 -1
New York 43 45 (+2) -1 +3
Ohio 22 24 (+2) +2 -
Texas 18 21 (+3) +1 +2
Virginia 10 9 (-1) -1 -
Washington 5 6 (+1) +1 -
1924 - Actual Results:
- 382 votes --> Coolidge/Dawes
- 136 votes --> Davis/Bryan
- 13 votes --> La Follette/Wheeler
- 384 votes --> Coolidge/Dawes
- 134 votes --> Davis/Bryan
- 13 votes --> La Follette/Wheeler
- 444 votes --> Hoover/Curtis
- 87 votes --> Smith/Robinson
- 446 votes --> Hoover/Curtis
- 85 votes --> Smith/Robinson
Code: Select all
1880 1890 1900 1910 1920 1930
---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
Alabama 8 +1 - +1 +1 +1
Arizona 1 +1 -
Arkansas 5 +1 +1 - +1 -
California 6 +1 +1 +3 +5 +10
Colorado 1 +1 +1 +1 - +1
Connecticut 4 - +1 - +1 +1
Delaware 1 - - - - -
Florida 2 - +1 +1 - +3
Georgia 10 +1 - +1 +1 -
Idaho 1 - +1 - -
Illinois 20 +2 +3 +2 +3 +5
Indiana 13 - - - - +2
Iowa 11 - - - - -
Kansas 7 +1 - - - +1
Kentucky 11 - - - - +1
Louisiana 6 - +1 +1 - +2
Maine 4 - - - - -
Maryland 6 - - - +1 -
Massachusetts 12 +1 +1 +2 +2 +1
Michigan 11 +1 - +1 +4 +5
Minnesota 5 +2 +2 +1 +1 +1
Mississippi 7 - +1 - - +1
Missouri 14 +1 +1 - - +1
Montana 1 - - +1 +1 -
Nebraska 3 +3 - - - -
Nevada 1 - - - - -
New Hampshire 2 - - - - -
New Jersey 7 +1 +2 +2 +2 +4
New Mexico 1 +1 -
New York 34 - +3 +6 +4 +10
North Carolina 9 - +1 - +2 +2
North Dakota 1 - +1 +1 - -
Ohio 21 - - +1 +4 +4
Oklahoma 8 +1 +2
Oregon 1 +1 - +1 +1 -
Pennsylvania 28 +2 +2 +4 +4 +4
Rhode Island 2 - - +1 - -
South Carolina 7 - - - +1 -
South Dakota 2 - - +1 - -
Tennessee 10 - - - +1 +1
Texas 11 +2 +3 +2 +3 +6
Utah 1 +1 - -
Vermont 2 - - - - -
Virginia 10 - - - +1 -
Washington 1 +1 +1 +2 +1 +1
West Virginia 4 - +1 +1 +1 +1
Wisconsin 9 +1 +1 - +1 +1
Wyoming 1 - - - -